Democrats just received another brutal wake-up call as November looms closer. A recent poll conducted by Roanoke College indicates that former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden are tied in the traditionally blue state of Virginia. Both candidates garnered 42% support in a head-to-head matchup, signaling a competitive race as the 2024 presidential election approaches. This marks the first time the Roanoke College Poll has shown a tie between the two for the blue-leaning state.

The poll, conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, surveyed 711 likely voters in Virginia between May 12 and May 21, 2024. When other candidates are included in the mix, Biden holds a narrow lead with 40% of the vote compared to Trump's 38%. One of the key takeaways from the poll is the level of certainty and enthusiasm among voters.

In 2020, Biden won Virginia by a margin of 10 percentage points over the Republican incumbent. Biden received 54% of the vote, while Trump secured 44%. This continued the trend of Virginia leaning Democratic in presidential elections, a pattern that has been consistent since 2008. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Virginia by a smaller margin of 5.3 percentage points against Trump. Clinton garnered 49% of the vote compared to Trump's 44%. The election marked Virginia as a battleground state, although it leaned slightly Democratic.

In the poll, 64% of likely voters are very certain of their vote choice, and another 28% are somewhat certain. Moreover, just over half of the respondents, 52%, expressed that they are very enthusiastic about voting, with another 27% somewhat enthusiastic. The economy emerged as the most critical issue for voters, with 44% of respondents citing it as their primary concern. Other significant issues include immigration 14%, abortion 13%, foreign affairs 8%, and crime 5%. The poll also shed light on voter perceptions regarding the legitimacy of past elections.

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A majority of likely voters, 63%, believe that Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, while 34% think he won due to election irregularities. In contrast, nearly three-fourths of respondents believe Trump legitimately won the 2016 election, with 21% attributing his victory to alleged collusion with Russia. These perceptions are deeply divided along partisan lines, with 94% of Republicans affirming Trump's 2016 victory as legitimate compared to 53% of Democrats, and 91% of Democrats recognizing Biden's 2020 win as legitimate compared to only 29% of Republicans.

Biden's job approval rating stands at a modest 35%, with a disapproval rating of 61%, tying his all-time high disapproval rating from February. The poll revealed a stark contrast in perceptions of the direction of the country and the commonwealth. While a slight majority of 53% believe Virginia is headed in the right direction, a significant 70% think the country is on the wrong track.

The news comes as Biden’s poor polling and stakes of the election “are creating a freakout,” among top Democrats. The party, ensnared in a relentless and joyless campaign grind, now confronts the reality of a potential loss, causing a significant shift in mood at the highest levels. As both campaigns gear up for the final stretch, the race in Virginia remains intensely competitive, with Trump and Biden neck and neck.

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