On MS NOW’s The Weekend, as they were discussing the Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump’s tariffs, Axios Senior Economics Reporter Courtenay Brown suggested it’s very unlikely Walmart would lower prices if it receives tariff refunds.
Brown’s comments reflect a common media blind spot: the assumption that large retailers can simply pocket cost savings without regard to competition.
Brown treats Walmart as though it operates outside market discipline. In reality, the retail giant competes on razor-thin margins with Target, Amazon, Costco, and regional chains.
If tariff refunds materially reduce costs across major retailers, competitive dynamics would put downward pressure on prices — not because Walmart is charitable, but because it is competitive. Indeed, recent reporting has noted price declines in certain grocery categories — notably eggs — underscoring that retail pricing responds to cost pressures and competitive dynamics.
Brown suggested a small Main Street shop might share a refund with customers — but doubted Walmart would.
That echoes a familiar media narrative: small businesses are cast in a rosy light, while large corporations, driven by [cue Bernie Sanders voice] gr-e-e-e-d, are presumed to hoard gains. But large retailers got large precisely because they compete aggressively on price.
The question isn’t whether Walmart benevolently sends consumers a rebate. It’s whether competitive pressure forces price adjustments if costs meaningfully decline.
That’s Econ 101 — something you’d expect a senior economics reporter to consider.
Here's the transcript.
MS NOW
The Weekend
2/21/26
7:09 am ET
JONATHAN CAPEHART: My big question is, oh great, the Supreme Court said that these tariffs are unconstitutional. I bet most Americans who are watching, they're like, ooh, so where's my, am I going to get a refund? Hold on.
Listen to what the Treasury Secretary had to say about it when he talked at the Dallas, where was he?
EUGENE DANIELS: Economic Club of Dallas.
CAPEHART: Yeah, the Economic Club of Dallas, yesterday. Watch this, it's short.
ECONOMIC CLUB HOST: must be a food fight going after the $175 billion in it, so.
SCOTT BESSENT: I got a feeling the American people won't see it.
CAPEHART: Heh! I got a feeling the American people won't see it. He's right! We are not going to get any kind of rebate check from anybody.
COURTENAY BROWN: Yeah, I wouldn't wait by the mailbox for your check. There's no check coming directly to consumers.
CAPEHART: Not even direct deposit?
BROWN: Not even direct deposit. Don't sit refreshing your bank account either, it's not coming.
It's actually unclear whether businesses who paid for the tariffs will actually get a refund and if they do, when they get it. It could be years. Even President Trump admitted that it could be years down the line if they see anything at all.
And what businesses then do with the money, especially the ones that said, you know, I'm sorry to our consumers, we're going to have to raise prices because our cost of doing business has gone up tremendously.
I'm not sure how they get that money back to the consumers. I think for the sake of ease, that's not something that will happen at all.
Is there a small business on Main Street somewhere that decides, you know, hey, we finally got our refund, we won't raise prices for this reason? Sure.
But I highly doubt that Walmart is going to roll back prices a lot to account for whatever refund that may or may not come.