Neoconservative pundits who insisted that the Iran War would have no downside and that Republicans were united behind the conflict are facing an uncomfortable reality as the GOP suffers a brutal defeat in the 2026 midterms.
The first rosy prediction — albeit on Trump's ability to cripple the regime rather than how the effort would play out politically — came from Washington Post columnist and American Enterprise Institute fellow Marc Thiessen the month before Trump launched his first strike on the Iranian regime.
In January 2026, Thiessen declared, "There is no downside to striking the regime. Trump has already done so twice, and each time, Iran was unable or unwilling to retaliate."
Conservative commentators and activists mocked Thiessen for his prediction as Republicans braced for a Democratic sweep in the House and Senate on Tuesday night. (RELATED: Trump Finding Himself On Same Side As Neocons He Railed Against At Beginning Of Political Career)
"What the retard right actually looks like," consultant Ryan Girdusky tweeted.
What the retard right actually looks like pic.twitter.com/h2g35ptSZY
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) November 4, 2026
Thiessen doubled down in a July column, sharing a landline poll claiming that Gen Z wanted the U.S. to take a more active role in foreign policy.
"Young MAGA voters don't want America to pull back from the world; they want to lead it," Thiessen wrote. "From Ukraine to Iran to Taiwan, Trump supporters under 30 favor engagement over isolation."
"The isolationists are out of step with Trump and the 'America First' movement writ large — and there is no help on the way from the Gen Z right," he added.
In addition to using landline phones to reach the demographic least likely to use them, the poll Thiessen cited also failed to define "MAGA voter."
Fox News host Mark Levin and Daily Wire founder Ben Shapiro insisted in September that the war would have no impact on the midterms, with Levin declaring that it was only a "4 percent issue" for voters.
It's crazy because unbiased commentators Ben Shapiro and Mark Levin insisted that the Iran war would have no effect on the midterms pic.twitter.com/8VuDH3BqlA
— Jared Taylor Swift (@DemsRealRacists) November 4, 2026
NewsNation host Batya Ungar-Sargon, who describes herself as a "MAGA lefty" but supported going to war with Iran, wrote in March, "Don't buy the media's lies. MAGA isn't split on this issue at all. It's the noisy influencers pretending to represent MAGA who have split—again."
New polls show an overwhelming majority of Republicans support the President's strike on Iran.
— Batya Ungar-Sargon (@bungarsargon) March 4, 2026
Don't buy the media's lies. MAGA isn't split on this issue at all. It's the noisy influencers pretending to represent MAGA who have split—again.
My new column:https://t.co/nAFKrn9pmZ pic.twitter.com/XBO54YNBVT
Neoconservatives and Iran War hawks nonetheless deflected responsibility for cheering on Trump's war.
Levin stated on his radio show the day before the midterms, "The vast majority of us are utterly unaffected by that war."
"It's not your fault, it's not my fault, it's not the president's fault," he said. "It's not because of the Iran War, it's not because of the price of gasoline."
An NBC News Exit Poll found that 39 percent of voters cited the economy as their top issue, with 87 percent specifically citing gas and diesel fuel prices. The vast majority blamed President Donald Trump for the worsening economy. 62 percent of voters said they thought the president made the wrong decision in starting the war.
Still, James Lindsay blamed podcasters and conservatives criticizing the war for depressing Republican turnout in the midterms.
"Iran wouldn't have pulled Trump down almost at all if the whole Woke Right media ecosystem didn't countersignal him and monetize manufactured rage at him literally the whole time," Lindsay wrote.
Iran wouldn't have pulled Trump down almost at all if the whole Woke Right media ecosystem didn't countersignal him and monetize manufactured rage at him literally the whole time. The tariffs probably would have hurt him anyway, but turning people against him over the war did it.
— James Lindsay, anti-Communist (@ConceptualJames) November 4, 2026
Shapiro identified the first lesson Republicans should learn from the election outcome as "don't run terrible candidates," though he admitted the Iran War was "not helpful" in driving inflation and gas prices up.
Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump warned back in September that the Iran War might "cost him these midterms" but said losing both chambers of Congress was worth it to stop an alleged nuclear threat.
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