Military generals tend to be much more realistic about the potential negative consequences of going to war, as well as difficulties and challenges, over and against the often more hawkish policy-makers.
OK, but the risks of attacking Iran were all knowable before the massive forward deployment of US forces to the region.
— ProfTalmadge (@ProfTalmadge) February 23, 2026
This is a military buildup in search of a political and strategic rationale.https://t.co/HGpFA7m6Yf
Of course, also not too distant in the collective memory of top brass is the disastrous 2003 Iraq invasion, which led to two decade long extremely difficult and bloody occupation and quagmire.
The Bush administration had essentially said it would be a cake walk, with then-US Vice President Dick Cheney famously telling NBC's Meet the Press in March 2003: "I think things have gotten so bad inside Iraq, from the standpoint of the Iraqi people, my belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators."
Some remnant Neocons, who of course never learn their lesson - such as Senator Lindsey Graham - are currently trying to a paint a similar picture with Iran in 2026. Graham and even some within the Trump administration are arguing for full regime change.
According to the Wall Street Journal, General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned the administration that attacks on Iran would have significant downsides:
— Shaiel Ben-Ephraim (@academic_la) February 23, 2026
1) Caine warned that the war plans under consideration carry a high risk of significant American and…
1) Caine warned that the war plans under consideration carry a high risk of significant American and allied casualties.
2) He cautioned that a multi-day campaign would exhaust air-defense munitions and other limited-supply items, which are critical for protecting regional partners like Israel if Iran retaliates.
3) An intensive operation against Iran could deplete stockpiles to a level that would complicate U.S. readiness for a potential future conflict with China.
4) He described the potential campaign as one that could "stretch the military thin" and leave forces "overtaxed".
5) Caine's gave "high likelihood of success" reassurances before the January 2026 mission to apprehend Nicolas Maduro, he has been unable to provide similar guarantees regarding a large-scale strike on Iran.
President Trump has not made up his mind, the report says, but also: "Officials say the issues raised by Caine, widely seen as a trusted aide by Trump, and others will be a factor in the president’s decision on whether to attack Iran and how."
Iran is prepared to make any strikes, however 'limited' they might be, into something costly for US forces. Already Tehran has said it would unleash ballistic missiles and drones on US bases in the region. Israel could come under fire too.
Iran's Foreign Ministry has said Monday that any American military action, even on a small scale, would be seen as an act of war and unwarranted aggression. "And any state would react to an act of aggression as part of its inherent right of self-defense, ferociously. So that’s what we would do," ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said at a briefing in Tehran.
Within hours after the WSJ report being out, President Trump slammed it as fake news, and has assured that if the decision to strike Iran is given by him as Commander-in-Chief, Caine will be fully supportive and ready...
Might Gen. Caine's arguments from a place of caution win out? There's a strong chance that he is speaking some sanity into Trump, who himself had repeatedly vowed on the campaign trail no more dumb regime change wars in the Middle East.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly has been quoted as saying: "General Caine is a talented and highly valued member of President Trump’s national security team. The president listens to a host of opinions on any given issue and decides based on what is best for U.S. national security."
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Meanwhile, Hegseth on the hilarious Pentagon/DOD activity 'pizza tracker' as an indicator of imminent war chances: "I've thought of just ordering lots of pizza on random nights just to throw everybody off."
PETER DOOCY: "There is an account on X that tries to forecast military action based on how busy the pizza places are around the Pentagon... Have you guys thought about maybe just going to the cafeteria?"
— Vivek Sen (@Vivek4real_) February 22, 2026
SECRETARY HEGSETH: "I'm aware of that account. I hadn't thought of just… pic.twitter.com/rLiA5bzMuT
