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Hey everyone,
Welcome to State of the Day,
Winning is one thing. Governing is another.
The Midterms Won't End The Parties' Identity Crises
Tomorrow's a big day for the union … I'm excited, and I hope you are too. There's plenty of noise about a blue wave or a surprise Republican showing, but beyond which party comes out on top, both sides face an unavoidable reckoning.
Democrats have spent the last two years focusing their messaging on President Trump, and honestly, it's worked.
The Iran War, gas prices, tariffs, allegations of rampant corruption — the White House has given the left lots to work with. However, they've been able to focus on politics, not policy, because in 2024 voters handed Republicans a trifecta in the Capital.
Now, most election forecasters agree Democrats will, at the very minimum, take control of the House, meaning come January it'll be time for Congressional Democrats to start legislating again.
And while there's been lots of talk about the schism on the right, a similar phenomenon is happening on the left — ironically enough, over many of the same issues.
Democrats have assembled quite the umbrella; failed Senate candidate Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers, passing over her own party's Abdul El-Sayed, presumably over their differences on Israel. Quite the contrast with candidates like Melat Kiros, who challenged a fifteen-term incumbent as a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.
If Democrats take the lower or upper chamber — or both — they'll have to reconcile these disparate parts of their caucus while electing congressional leadership and deciding who gets Congress' most important posts.
Will it be Speaker Jeffries? He's worked to keep his caucus together over the last Congress, but is seen as an establishment politician by many of his current and incoming colleagues.
Or will the more progressive freshman class cause an upset, forcing leaders more aligned with their causes? Some, like Kiros, have already said they wouldn't back Jeffries for leader, prompting a few in the party to look elsewhere for someone to wield their gavel.
Part of it will come down to their margins; the more seats go blue, the better for the Democratic establishment. But if they have a slim majority, as we've seen in the current Congress, a small group of hardliners could complicate matters for them.
And if the GOP pulls off the upset of the century and somehow holds onto their majorities, they'll face a reckoning of their own. President Trump would be a lame-duck president, and he won't be on the ticket the next time they're up for reelection. Do they keep close ties with the outgoing leader, or do they curry favor with their pick for the 2028 nomination?
But if Republicans lose either or both chambers, they'll face a much more uncomfortable question: now what?
Who will be the minority leader should Republicans lose the House? Will Johnson stay, or will he face a challenge from the likes of Steve Scalise or Jim Jordan?
But the greater question Republicans will have to answer is about Trump. Will they finally grow a spine and exercise the branch's checks and balances, or will they cower to the president's wrath?
They mostly ran with the president this cycle.
Trump made stops in essentially every competitive race and worked with candidates across the country, most of whom echoed their support for him, despite his cratering approval ratings.
Ask me? I think no matter which party comes out on top, Republicans will be more comfortable bucking the president; they've seen his numbers and know his electoral power will be greatly diminished following the midterms.
Look, tomorrow night will be interesting regardless of the outcome. But the weeks and months ahead may prove more consequential for the future of American politics than the election itself; it's easy to keep a party together when everyone agrees on who they're fighting, whether that be the DSA or Trump.
It's considerably harder when they have to agree on what they're fighting for.
— From the Editors' Desk
EXCLUSIVE: DOJ Reviewing Felony Charges Against James O'Keefe, Cam Higby Over Undercover Election Sting — Ashley Brasfield, Daily Caller
The DOJ told the Daily Caller they are "reviewing" a Minnesota prosecutor's case against conservative activists James O'Keefe and Cam Higby after the pair were hit with felony charges for an undercover sting in which they exposed weaknesses in the state's election system. A spokesperson for the department said they are "concerned about intimidation related to First Amendment activity."
What Horror Films Have to Say About God — Luis Parrales, The Atlantic
Are horror movies heavenly or heretical? The Atlantic's Luis Parrales explores the debate after Christian podcaster Allie Beth Stuckey warned her followers against watching scary movies. But Parrales argues that some of the genre's most memorable films grapple with deeply religious questions about good, evil, redemption, and the supernatural. A little spooky-season theology, anyone?
Democrats turn Trump's old playbook against him in quest to retake the House — Matthew Choi, Anna Liss-Roy, and Mariana Alfaro, Washington Post
Democrats have turned the tables on President Donald Trump. After the president staked his 2024 political comeback primarily on economic issues, his opponents are now focusing on persistent high prices and voter concerns about affordability. An October Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll indicated the plan may be working; it found that voters trust Democrats more than Republicans on the economy, a striking reversal from the election two years ago.
Exclusive: Fired general admitted to leaking classified Iran and Ukraine info, report says — Marc Caputo and Thomas Novelly, Axios
Defense (War?) Secretary Pete Hegseth this week fired Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, with the Department of War claiming that Sylvia had been caught leaking sensitive information to journalists. Axios got a peek at the internal report of the investigation into Sylvia's alleged misconduct, in which he reportedly admitted to sharing information with the media. He had trouble passing multiple polygraph interviews," the report says, according to Axios.
Neighbors Feud Over Frontyard Horror Shows as Halloween Keeps Getting Scarier — Natasha Dangoor, Wall Street Journal
People are putting up increasingly disturbing Halloween displays in their yards and it has parents struggling to keep their kids from having nightmares, Dangoor reports at WSJ. Creepy clowns, towering skeletons, severed heads covered in fake blood; Halloween connoisseurs say they've increasingly been receiving notes from neighbors who are worried about the intensely macabre decorations.
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