An early general election would be a 'hell of a risk' for Andy Burnham, a leading pollster has warned, as a survey showed anger over the Government's failure to tackle welfare spending.
The Prime Minister would lose a 'significant' number of MPs if he went to the country now - even under 'the most optimistic scenarios', according to More in Common director Luke Tryl.
His warning came as the pollster published research suggesting voters think last week's Budget falls short of Mr Burnham's promises on 'every issue'.
On reducing the welfare bill, only 19per cent thought the Budget 'lives up to' the Prime Minister's promises - while 49per cent said it does not.
Only 13per cent thought it would 'end 40 years of neoliberalism', and only 24per cent thought it would improve Britain's defence and security.
More than half (51per cent) thought the Budget failed to live up to Mr Burnham's promises on bringing down the cost of living, while 27per cent thought it did live up to the promise.
Asked about the possibility of an early election, Mr Tryl told a briefing this afternoon: 'My view is that if you look at the data at the moment, it would be a hell of a risk to go for a snap election.
'One, because you would almost certainly - even under the most optimistic scenarios - be looking at a significant loss of your MPs - and coming out of an election as a loser is never a good thing for your long term survival prospects.
Andy Burnham has repeatedly ruled out holding a snap election, but speculation has only mounted since the so-called 'do nothing' Budget
'But also it comes to the issue of the question, and it is hard to see what Burnham thinks he is constrained by in the 2024 manifesto that he could argue for in a snap election.'
He said the Prime Minister would 'presumably' need longer to come up with a plan on the EU, social care and electoral reform.
He said the 'only thing' the PM could 'plausibly' say the manifesto binds him on is tax, but warned: 'It's quite a big risk to go into an election where you are pledging or look like you're arguing for space to do tax rises.'
Mr Burnham has repeatedly ruled out holding a snap election, but speculation has only mounted since the so-called 'do nothing' Budget.
Last week the PM categorically denied he was planning to go to the country within the next year, saying: 'I don't know how many times I've done this now, but yes, I can rule out calling a general election in the next 12 months.'
But Tory leader Kemi Badenoch said the Budget was 'all about an election' and said she did not believe the Prime Minister when he said one would not be called within the year. 'I actually think that they were preparing for one much sooner,' she said.
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