Amid Republicans' many losses in the 2026 midterms is a silver lining indicating that the party still holds an advantage over Democrats on a key policy issue: immigration.
NBC News exit polling suggests that, despite Democrat-led opposition to immigration enforcement and deportations, the GOP is generally viewed as more trustworthy on the topic. When asked how important immigration policies were in determining their vote for Congress, 73 percent said it was "crucial or a major factor," while 23 percent said it was "a minor factor or not a factor." Among the 73 percent who indicated the former, Republicans won 51 percent to 47 percent.
Among white voters who cared about immigration, Republicans won 58% to 40% pic.twitter.com/HW0qTpvD0M
— Douglass Mackey (@douglassmackey) November 4, 2026
Upon further analysis, the same poll found that, among the 36 percent who said the issue was "crucial" to their vote, Republicans won 57 to 42 percent. Among the 64 percent who said the issue was "a major factor or a minor factor or not a factor," Democrats won 63 percent to 36 percent.
The poll did find a majority of voters (60 to 40 percent) disapprove of the way ICE "is handling its job," however.
Data from CNN's exit polling similarly appears to indicate that immigration enforcement remains a winning issue for Republicans.
Of the 73 percent of respondents said such policy was a "crucial" or a "major factor" to their vote, Republicans won 51 to 47 percent. Among the 36 percent who said immigration enforcement was "crucial" to their vote, Republicans won 57 to 42 percent.
Here is a quadrant chart using CNN’s exit poll. It shows what issues hurt Republicans, by how many voters called each issue crucial and how they voted. Cost of living (49%, D+34), corruption (55%, D+28), & Iran (34%, D+46) made people vote D. Only immigration (36%, R+15) helped… pic.twitter.com/kA0ab0ThAt
— Smirkley (@Smirkley) November 5, 2026
Democrats also seemed to recognize that their opposition to enforcing America's immigration laws was not a winning issue for their party heading into Tuesday's elections.
An Axios analysis of each party's campaign ads found that "ICE" was the third most-featured policy issue in Democrat ads during the 2026 primary season. When it came to the general election, however, "ICE" plummeted to the 35th policy issue talked about in Democrat ads. The party's general election ads instead focused heavily on health care and inflation, among other issues.
The post-election data comes amid concerns that the White House and Republicans could collaborate with open-border Democrats on "immigration reform," which has often served as a euphemism for both parties to push mass amnesty for illegal aliens in the United States.
President Trump signaled openness to working with Democrats on the issue during a Wednesday interview with Fox News. Speaking with network anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, the president said, "We could work with them on immigration, I think. Immigration is a big deal. I've always felt we should be able to work on immigration."
When later pressed on the comments, a White House official told The Daily Caller that "[t]here has never been a stronger administration on immigration enforcement than the Trump Administration," and that "[t]he Administration will never allow for mass amnesty."
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was…
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
Shop
Visit Store
Shop The #FDRLSTSWAG Store Source link
