A little over 20 years ago, Ken Paxton, then in the Texas House of Representatives, was asked by the Dallas Morning News to name his crowning achievement in office.
Paxton at the time was an unremarkable lawyer, elected three years previously on predictable pledges to promote education and lower taxes. So, his answer was somewhat surprising – and revealing.
'I am most proud of House Bill 137,' replied the ambitious and crafty chameleon.
That bill, signed into law by Governor Rick Perry in May 2005, ordered that all major highways display a sign: 'Welcome to Texas - Proud Home of President George W Bush.'
Paxton, with an eye on his political future, wanted the world to know just how committed to the cause he was.
Yet fast forward two decades and that warm welcome has shifted to a distinctly cold shoulder. Indeed, both Paxton and the Bushes have come to the conclusion that the Lone Star State ain't big enough for the both of them.
Paxton, the 63-year-old attorney general, has had a dramatic change of heart – calling on his supporters in recent years to 'end the Bush dynasty' once and for all. He is now a MAGA zealot running to be elected to the US Senate – shoving aside veteran Bush loyalist John Cornyn in the process.
And with polls showing Paxton's race as too close to call, the Bushes are, for their part, putting their money where their mouths are.
Ken Paxton has called on his supporters in recent years to 'end the Bush dynasty'
Texas is 'the proud home' of former President George W Bush and with polls showing Paxton's race as too close to call, the Bushes are putting their money where their mouths are
'The Bush dynasty was derailed by Donald Trump and the MAGA Trumpism movement,' Mark Updegrove, chairman and CEO of the LBJ Foundation, who spent hours interviewing both President Bushes for his book The Last Republicans, told the Daily Mail.
'I think they see that there could be some opportunity here for more traditional Republicanism to resurge, with what seems like it might be a major repudiation of Trump's leadership.'
The now largely reclusive George W Bush last month emerged near his Dallas home as guest of honor at a high-profile fundraiser for six Republican Senate candidates – Paxton, pointedly, not among them.
'Dubya's daughter Barbara, a 44-year-old Brooklyn-based NBA executive, went further this month when FEC records show that she donated quietly, but not secretly, to Paxton's Democrat rival, James Talarico – the man who, some believe, could turn this red state blue.
The biggest splash of all was made this week by his Houston-based brother Neil, 71, who stunned some by announcing he had voted for Talarico.
'I have never posted a political message on Facebook, not wanting to offend friends whose views may be very different than mine,' Neil wrote on Tuesday – the second day of early voting in his state.
'I'm breaking that tradition because I voted early today, and I voted for James Talarico for the United States Senate.'
Neil continued: 'My vote was motivated by two things: deep concern about Ken Paxton's record and genuine admiration for the character and principles I see in James Talarico.
'I have been a Republican for most of my life, and I still believe deeply in many traditional Republican principles. But character matters more than party affiliation.'
Perhaps it might be tempting to dismiss the Bush family as political has-beens, who no longer hold sway over the state. But that fails to recognize their decades of dominance.
George W Bush's daughter Barbara donated to Paxton's Democrat rival, James Talarico
Neil Bush, George W's 71 year old brother, stunned some this week by announcing he had voted for Talarico
For 100 years after Civil War Reconstruction, Texas was a doggedly Democratic state. It was not until 1994, when George W Bush ousted the incumbent Democrat governor, Ann Richards, that the party took its current Republican form. The last Democratic officials at state level were voted out in 1998.
As Texas Monthly editor Christopher Hooks wrote in May, 'the Bush-era GOP consumed the once-dominant Texas Democratic Party like locusts eat a field of wheat - and made possible everything that came after.'
The Bush family made it known in 2016 that they did not support Trump's campaign. But their moves against Paxton are the most significant shifts since being cast into the wilderness.
Steve Bannon, the MAGA strategist who worked in Trump's White House during his first term, told the Daily Mail that 'the Bush junta is still very powerful in Texas.'
But, he said, their power now resides beneath the political waves.
'They still have a deep network of law firms, real estate, banking and oil money,' said Bannon.
Bannon, who is spending the next two weeks rallying the grassroots in Texas, said the race was the most important of the midterms – and the Bush family is right in the middle.
'It's a political civil war down here,' he said.
But could George W Bush himself even endorse Talarico, as his brother has done?
Updegrove, the presidential historian, thinks it is unlikely.
'I think he would lose face in the Republican Party,' he told the Daily Mail. 'But he understands that it is not his party now. It is antithetical to what Bush believed. Bush was pro-democracy, pro-immigrant, pro-free trade, pro-NATO. All these things that Trump has come out against.
'Bush-style Republicanism is clearly out of fashion, and the only way the Bush family can regain prominence is if MAGA Trumpism gives way to a return to traditional Republican values, or at least more conventional political norms.'
Karl Rove, George W Bush's chief strategist as governor and president, is less reticent, and now openly campaigning against Paxton – much to the fury of the current president.
On October 15 Trump wrote on Truth Social: 'Sadly, and very stupidly, John Cornyn, and his Liddle' Buddy, Super RINO, Karl Rove, are doing everything possible to make it hard for Ken Paxton, the Greatest Attorney General in the History of Texas, and one of the Best in the United States, to win the upcoming Midterm Election against a Radical Left Lunatic, James TalaFREAKO, who is the ANTITHESIS of Texas Values.'
He continued: 'They are hurting Texas and, more importantly, hurting the United States of America!
'If Ken Paxton loses, it will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove, who have ineffectively opposed me for my entire political career.'
Talarico is the man who, some believe, could turn this red state blue
President Donald Trump has publicly supported Ken Paxton, whom he calls 'the Greatest Attorney General in the History of Texas, and one of the Best in the United States'
For the Bush family, politics in Texas are personal.
The flag bearer of the next generation, 50-year-old George P Bush, son of Jeb and nephew of George W, ran for attorney general in 2022 but was defeated by Paxton.
George P had been the state land commissioner before his run for attorney general: Paxton's win brought to an end the family's four-decade streak of holding elected office.
George P is now in the political wilderness, perhaps biding his time.
'He's ambitious,' Cal Jillson, professor of political science at Southern Methodist University in Dallas told the Daily Mail.
'He wants to make a mark in public service, like his father and uncle and grandfather and great-grandfather did. So, it wouldn't be surprising to me at all to see him throw his hat back in the ring if he believes there is a viable path forward. That will necessitate a change in the mood of the electorate - which we might be seeing now.'
The year after George P's defeat, Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled House on charges of abusing power to benefit a donor, himself and his alleged mistress. The vote made Paxton the first statewide official to be impeached since 1917.
Paxton's lawyers argued that his impeachment was the result of a Bush-orchestrated plot against his pro-Trump politics. He was ultimately exonerated by his allies in the Senate. He denied any wrongdoing.
But scandal and sparring with the Bush-aligned Republicans continued.
In May this year, Paxton defeated George W Bush's longtime ally John Cornyn in the Republican primary. 'Dubya' had donated $5,000 to Senator Cornyn's reelection bid, which The Texas Tribune said was his first donation to a federal candidate in Texas since 2022.
Cornyn has been blunt in his assessment of Paxton, calling him a 'bad candidate' and an 'embarrassment.'
George P Bush - son of Jeb, nephew of George W - ran for attorney general in 2022 but was defeated by Paxton
Steve Bannon, the MAGA strategist who worked in Trump's White House during his first term, told the Daily Mail that 'the Bush junta is still very powerful in Texas'
In addition to his impeachment, Paxton has had to fend off whistleblowers from his own office as attorney general, who accused him of enriching himself. Talarico claims that Paxton is $27 million the richer since taking office and now owns 15 homes.
In Paxton's August federal disclosure, he reported a net worth between $1 million and $27 million. Madison Cercy, a spokesperson for his campaign, said at the time that Paxton 'has had a long and successful career outside of public service, including running his own small business as a lawyer. Stirring up partisan allegations is nothing more than a bad attempt to manufacture controversy where none exists.'
Paxton's wife of 38 years, Angela, herself a state senator, has filed for divorce 'on Biblical grounds' – citing his multiple affairs, which he has made little effort to hide.
According to Jillson: 'What offends George W. Bush more than the unhorsing of Cornyn is the kind of person Ken Paxton so clearly is: (a) sort of moral and ethical leper.
'I just don't think either of the Bushes, George or Laura, are there. I think they are offended and shamed by the presence of Paxton on the statewide ticket in Texas.'
Talarico, who speaks often of bipartisanship and civility, appears to grasp the significance of the Bush endorsements – tacit or overt.
Speaking on Monday to the New York Times's podcast The Daily, Talarico said he saw a vote for him as a rejection of Trumpist extremes, and by extension a return to the more traditional centrist ground.
'We have really seen extremism grip the Republican Party in our state,' said Talarico. 'You know the days of George W Bush or George H W Bush were gone by the time I was voting in our state. And I think that's exactly why so many small-c conservatives are joining this movement of ours.
'We've been endorsed by more than 20 current and former Republican officials across the state because they see that one-party rule leads to extremism and corruption. That certainly happened in Texas with Republican one-party rule.'
And yet might, ironically, a Talarico victory defeat the MAGA Republicans – and bring back the Bushes?
'I think there's no question about that,' said Updegrove. 'But we have to see a return to a more traditional kind of Republicanism, or at least more conventional political norms.'
Talarico said he saw a vote for him as a rejection of Trumpist extremes, and by extension a return to the more traditional centrist ground
Paxton's wife of 38 years, Angela has filed for divorce 'on Biblical grounds' - citing his multiple affairs
Jillson agreed.
'The Bush family has been in steep decline in terms of influence, but it's not impossible that a real Republican shellacking in this midterm could bring some kind of reassessment,' he said.
'President Trump has been to Texas three or four times in the last five weeks and held his midterm convention in Dallas, and the 2028 Republican presidential nominating convention will be held in Houston,' Jillson said. 'That's because there is no path for a Republican to the presidency that doesn't include Texas. If Republicans don't carry Texas, they can't elect a president, because there aren't enough remaining conservative states to get to 270 electoral votes.'
Trump, he noted, 'is coming all the time,' the Republican Party is focused on the state, and Elon Musk has pumped $158 million into it in just the last month in political contributions.
Why? Because the whole country is watching, poised for the message the Lone Star state sends to the president.
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