The Democratic battle for control of the House of Representatives is entering its final stretch, with Republicans defending a narrow majority and Democrats seeking the handful of seats needed to take control of the chamber.
With Election Day around the corner, competitive races have expanded across traditionally Republican districts, while a number of Democratic-held seats also remain in play.
To win a House majority, Democrats would need to hold their own vulnerable seats while capturing a low number of Republican-held districts.
Republicans currently hold a 220-215 majority with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., holding the gavel and running the chamber.
Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to reach the 218 required for control of the chamber, which would give House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., the gavel.
A narrow majority would leave either party with little room for defections, which makes leadership decisions, spending negotiations and major legislative priorities difficult to navigate.
The outcome of the midterm election will also determine how aggressively Congress investigates and oversees the Trump administration over the next two years, given that the majority party will have subpoena power.
Jeffries has said Democrats would immediately investigate corruption allegations against Trump administration officials if the party controls the House.
"What we've seen from the Trump cartel is that they're more focused on enriching themselves, their family members, their friends and their donors than they are with making life more affordable for the American people," he said in early October.
Jeffries has stopped short of saying House Democrats would pursue impeachment of Trump, but he hasn't taken the option off of the table. Removing a president from office would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate.
Despite this, Trump has warned his base that the GOP losing the majority in Congress could lead to his removal from office.
"I think it's terrible. All they do is they talk about impeaching everybody," Trump said, according to the Washington Examiner.
Trump has also said Democrats would likely target his defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, mostly due to the Iran war.
"I mean, honestly, if we wanted to play that game, we could play it just as well," Trump said. "But they're talking about Pete Hegseth. He's doing a great job. He's a great warrior. I think he's the best at his job in many, many years, and a lot of people agree with him."
The Cook Political Report's October 30 ratings identify 18 toss-up races, including 14 currently held by Republicans and four held by Democrats.
Pennsylvania's 1st district is a tight race to track as a potential seat that could flip to the Democrats. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted October 16 through 22 has Democrat Bob Harvie with a slight lead over Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick, 48% to 46%.
Pennsylvania's 10th district is a competitive race. Republican incumbent Scott Perry is tied with Democrat Janelle Stelson at 48%, according to a New York Times/Siena poll conducted October 16 through 22.
Democrat Shannon Taylor is locked in a tight race with Republican incumbent Rob Wittman in Virginia's 1st district: A Public Policy Polling survey conducted October 21 through 22 showed the race essentially tied at 47% to 46%.
Some other competitive races that remain toss-ups include Iowa's 1st and 3rd districts, where Republican incumbents Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn are defending seats. New York's 17th district is another race to watch closely. Republican Mike Lawler is running against Democrat Mondaire Jones in a race that remains a toss-up.
There are 13 Republican-held districts that Cook Political Report identifies as leaning Democratic as of Sunday, including Virginia's 2nd district. Democrat Elaine Luria is leading Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans, 46% to 43%, according to a Christopher Newport University poll conducted October 1 through 10.
Other races in that category include the open seat currently occupied by Darrell Issa, R-Calif. San Diego City Council member Marni von Wilpert is running against Republican Jim Desmond in the general election. Incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, is running against Christina Bohannan. Her race has been moved to lean Democrat as well.
The overall polling picture gives Democrats a national advantage heading into Election Day.
A YouGov survey conducted October 23 through 26 shows Democrats at 50% and Republicans at 41%. An Ipsos survey conducted October 22 through 26 gives Democrats a wider advantage at 53% compared to Republicans at 44%.
An NPR/PBS poll conducted October 22 through 25 has Democrats at 52% compared to Republicans at 44%.
Election results on Tuesday night may not immediately settle which party will control the chamber, given that close races, particularly in states with lengthy ballot-counting procedures, could take days to fully resolve.
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