Last week’s tragic train accident in Spain that killed 69 has further hindered the Spanish socialist government’s chances to stay in power in the upcoming November 29 snap elections, a new published on Sunday found.
Per the poll, if the snap election were to take place this week, a right-wing coalition between the center-right People's Party (PP) and the anti-mass migration VOX party would have a “100 percent” chance of securing an absolute majority of parliamentary seats to form a government.
Spain is still mourning the October 28 train collision in Urda, Toledo, that claimed the lives of 69 passengers and left several more injured. As of Monday morning, 66 of the 69 fatal victims have so far been identified, 54 of which were Spaniard nationals, and 12 foreigners from different nationalities.
Central Spain: 30+ Killed, Dozens More Injured in High-Speed Train Crashhttps://t.co/3dT1d4SnDk
— Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) October 28, 2026
On October 5, socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for a snap election that is scheduled to take place on November 29. However, the recent tragedy appears to have further dented the unpopular Prime Minister and the ruling Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE)’s plans to stay in power, with support for the ruling socialists further diminishing in the immediate wake of the Urda train crash.
On Sunday, the Spanish outlet El Español published the results of a survey conducted by the polling firm SocioMétrica – the pollster’s first since the tragedy. According to El Español, PP is projected to secure 137 seats at the Congress of Deputies, while VOX is projected to secure 64.
Both parties, in addition to the two projected seats from the Navarrese People’s Union’s alliance with the People’s Party in Navarre (UPN-PP) would collectively equal to a projected 203 seats — far ahead of the 176 deputies required to form a government in Spain, but slightly bellow the 210 three-fifths supermajority required to promote constitutional changes, among other prerogatives.
El Español pointed out that prior to the tragedy, PP, VOX, and UNP-PP were projected by the same pollster to obtain 200 seats in the upcoming elections.
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In 2023, the PP secured 171 deputy seats, five short from the 176 required, a situation that allowed Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE to cling to power by forming a majority coalition with smaller leftist parties.
According to the survey, the PSOE is now projected to only secure 106 seats, 15 fewer than the 121 seats obtained in 2023. Collectively, the current ruling leftist coalition is projected to obtain 145 seats after last week’s tragedy, which would not allow the Sánchez administration to remain in power.
Across all simulations reportedly run by SocioMétrica on its latest survey, the PSOE only has a 4 percent chance of forming a new coalition government, against a 96 percent chance of a PP-led government in coalition with VOX.
SocioMétrica also found that the People’s Party is projected to be the most-voted group at the Spanish exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla — the former of which has just reached the third month of the ongoing mass migrant invasion.
The poll also comes days after VOX and the People’s Party announced a new agreement that will see the two parties not compete against each other in several Senate races across Spain. The move is part of a plan to further reduce the chances of a PSOE-led majority in the Upper House and to stop the advancement of far-left actors in Spanish government institutions.
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